Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

Valuation Analysis

About the Company

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Stock at a Glance

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is currently trading at $27.62 with a market capitalization of $5.3B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 15.97x, with a forward P/E of 10.54x. The 52-week range spans from $21.07 to $32.76; the current price is 15.7% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +2.3%. The net profit margin stands at 24.4%.

💰 Dividend

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation pays an annual dividend of $0.63 per share, representing a yield of 2.28%. The payout ratio stands at 35.55%.

📊 Analyst Rating

17 analysts rate Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $33.82, implying +22.46% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $28.00 to $38.00.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation: The Investment Case in Detail

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) operates in the Energy — specifically Oil & Gas E&P — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.

The Bull Case

With a gross margin near 80.49%, the company sits in the top tier of its industry — these are the kinds of structural margins that protect earnings during downturns. Free cash flow is positive and net margins stand at 24.4%, meaning reported earnings translate into real cash that can fund buybacks, dividends or strategic acquisitions. Wall Street consensus sits at Buy with an average price target implying roughly 22.46% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive.

The Bear Case

Revenue growth has slowed to just 2.3%, which is below nominal GDP — the business is no longer outgrowing the broader economy. Short interest sits at 14.55% of float — a meaningful contingent of professionals is positioned for the share to fall, which deserves attention even if their thesis may turn out to be wrong.

Valuation in Context

The EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.11x is below the historical equity-market average — strategic acquirers would find the cash-flow profile attractive at this level.

What to Watch Next

• The forward P/E of 10.54x is meaningfully below the trailing 15.97x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
• The analyst consensus price target implies 22.46% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Technical Snapshot

Price shows short-term weakness (below 50d MA) but is still in a longer-term uptrend (above 200d MA).

Risk Profile

The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (14.55%).

Trading Data

💵 Dividend Info

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