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El Pollo Loco Holdings

LOCO Small Cap

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Updated: May 22, 2026, 22:06 UTC

$14.07
-0.5% today
52W: $8.87 – $15.90
52W Low: $8.87 Position: 74% 52W High: $15.90

Key Metrics

P/E Ratio
14.36x
Price-to-Earnings
Forward P/E
12.98x
Forward Price/Earnings
P/S Ratio
0.86x
Price-to-Sales
EV/EBITDA
10.08x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Div. Yield
—
Annual dividend yield
Market Cap
$428.5M
Market Capitalization
Revenue Growth
5.9%
YoY Revenue Growth
Profit Margin
5.87%
Net profit margin
ROE
10.27%
Return on Equity
Beta
0.69
Market sensitivity
Short Interest
5.32%
% of float sold short
Avg. Volume
349,714
Average daily volume

Valuation Analysis

Signal
Undervalued
vs. S&P 500 avg P/E (24.7x)
Analyst Consensus
Buy
4 analysts
Avg. Price Target
$17.88
+27.04% upside
Target Range
$15.00 – $22.50

About the Company

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. The company operates and franchises restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses its brand to restaurants in the Philippines. The company was formerly known as Chicken Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. in April 2014. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Restaurants Country: United States Employees: 4,034 Exchange: NMS

El Pollo Loco Holdings Stock at a Glance

El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO) is currently trading at $14.07 with a market capitalization of $428.5M. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 14.36x, with a forward P/E of 12.98x. The 52-week range spans from $8.87 to $15.90; the current price is 11.5% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +5.9%. The net profit margin stands at 5.87%.

💰 Dividend

El Pollo Loco Holdings currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.

📊 Analyst Rating

4 analysts rate El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO) on consensus: Buy. The average price target is $17.88, implying +27.04% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $15.00 to $22.50.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths
  • Analyst consensus: Buy
  • Currently flagged as undervalued
  • Positive free cash flow
Weaknesses

No significant red flags in current metrics.

Technical Snapshot

50-Day MA
$13.72
+2.55% vs. price
200-Day MA
$11.28
+24.73% vs. price
Below 52W High
−11.5%
$15.90
Above 52W Low
+58.6%
$8.87

Price trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d above 200d — a classic bullish setup (golden-cross alignment).

Risk Profile

Market Risk (Beta)
0.69 · Defensive
Moves less than the overall market
Short Interest
5.32% · Elevated
% of float sold short
Debt-to-Equity
77.02 · Moderate
Total debt / equity

The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (5.32%).

Trading Data

50-Day MA: $13.72
200-Day MA: $11.28
Volume: 244,791
Avg. Volume: 349,714
Short Ratio: 5.4
P/B Ratio: 1.42x
Debt/Equity: 77.02x
Free Cash Flow: $25M

El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO) 2026: 13,44 USD US Fire-Grilled Chicken Restaurant Chain at 12,4x Forward Earnings with California-Concentrated Footprint and Strategic-Review Optionality

The Real Story

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) operates approximately 500 fire-grilled chicken restaurants primarily concentrated in California and Southwest US. Mix of company-operated and franchised. Differentiated positioning in Mexican-inspired fire-grilled-chicken category.

What Smart Money Thinks

LOCO has institutional base. Trimaran Capital historically PE-anchor. BlackRock at approximately 11,2 percent, Vanguard at approximately 8,4 percent. Short-interest sits at approximately 7 percent of float as of May 2026.

Explore the BMI Smart-Money Tracker →

📈 The 3 Real Bull Points

#1 Differentiated fire-grilled-chicken positioning vs Chick-fil-A, KFC

El Pollo Loco's Mexican-inspired fire-grilled-chicken positioning is structurally differentiated.

#2 California-concentration provides operating-leverage opportunity

Concentrated California footprint provides operating-leverage on regional brand-recognition.

#3 Strategic-review or franchise-acceleration optionality

Multiple PE-backers historical create eventual-strategic-review optionality.

📉 The 3 Real Bear Points

#1 California concentration creates geographic-and-regulatory risk

California minimum-wage and regulatory environment compresses margins.

#2 Fast-casual competition from Chipotle, Chick-fil-A compresses growth

Competitive pressure compresses unit-economics.

#3 Limited east-coast expansion execution

East coast expansion historically challenged.

Valuation in Context

LOCO at 13,44 USD per share with approximately 30,5 million shares outstanding has a market capitalization of approximately 409 million USD. Forward-P/E 12,4x.

Re-rating to 15-18x on consensus fiscal-2027 EPS 1,30 USD supports 19,50-23,50 USD — 45-75 percent upside. Bear-case 8-10 USD. Bull-case 28-35 USD.

🗓️ Next 3 Catalyst Dates

  1. 2026 Q3:

    Q2 2026 earnings. Watch-items: comparable-sales, margin recovery.

  2. 2026 Q4:

    Q3 2026 earnings.

  3. 2027 Q1:

    Fiscal-2026 full-year results.

💬 Daniel's Take

El Pollo Loco is a quality-cyclical US fire-grilled chicken specialist with California-concentration, differentiated positioning and 12,4x forward earnings fair-value. Position-sizing: 0,3–0,8 percent.

Sources (3)

Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, including total loss.

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