Churchill Downs, Incorporated

Valuation Analysis

About the Company

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services. The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the on

Churchill Downs, Incorporated Stock at a Glance

Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) is currently trading at $86.94 with a market capitalization of $6.1B. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 16.01x, with a forward P/E of 11.96x. The 52-week range spans from $80.24 to $118.46; the current price is 26.6% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +3.1%. The net profit margin stands at 13.21%.

💰 Dividend

Churchill Downs, Incorporated pays an annual dividend of $0.44 per share, representing a yield of 0.51%. The payout ratio stands at 8.07%.

📊 Analyst Rating

12 analysts rate Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) on consensus: Strong Buy. The average price target is $137.25, implying +57.87% from the current price. Analyst price targets range from $110.00 to $155.00.

Churchill Downs, Incorporated: The Investment Case in Detail

Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) operates in the Consumer Cyclical — specifically Gambling — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.

The Bull Case

Return on equity of 35% places management among the most capital-efficient operators in the public market — every euro of shareholder capital is working hard. Wall Street consensus sits at Strong Buy with an average price target implying roughly 57.87% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive. Our valuation screen flags the stock as undervalued relative to its fundamentals — multiples are running below where the cash flow profile would normally justify.

The Bear Case

Revenue growth has slowed to just 3.1%, which is below nominal GDP — the business is no longer outgrowing the broader economy. The debt-to-equity ratio of 438.29% is elevated, meaning the company relies heavily on creditors — refinancing terms will become more important than operational performance in the next economic downturn.

What to Watch Next

• The forward P/E of 11.96x is meaningfully below the trailing 16.01x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
• The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
• The analyst consensus price target implies 57.87% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.

Investment Thesis: Strengths & Weaknesses

Technical Snapshot

Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).

Risk Profile

The data points to relatively defensive market behavior, elevated short interest (6.57%), higher leverage relative to equity.

Trading Data

💵 Dividend Info

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