Watches as an Investment 2026 — Rolex, Patek, AP Compared
Luxury watches were the ultimate trend asset between 2020 and 2022 — Rolex Daytona at a 200 % premium over retail price, Patek Nautilus 5711 going for 250,000 € on the secondary market. Then came the crash: -40 to -50 % in 18 months. Today, in 2026, the market has stabilized. This guide shows you which watches are truly suitable for investing, what changed in 2025–2026, and which models are trading below their book value.
The watch market in 2026: three phases
- Phase 1 (before 2020): Rolex and Patek at retail level, barely any premium. Collectors bought out of love for the product.
- Phase 2 (2020–2022): lockdown cash + crypto boom + status-symbol cult. Daytona +200 %, Nautilus +400 %.
- Phase 3 (2023–2026): a correction of -40 to -50 % from the peaks. There is stabilization today; Rolex Submariner and Daytona are back below premium level.
The Bloomberg Subdial-50 index (the 50 most-traded luxury watches) currently sits around 15 % above retail-price level — a -45 % drop below the 2022 peaks.
Value stability correlates almost linearly with the brand hierarchy (Patek > AP > Rolex > Vacheron > Omega) and with model scarcity. A Rolex Submariner Date 126610LN holds its value; a special-edition Submariner Bruceloon 126613LB doubles it. Anyone speculating on returns must buy exactly the right model.
Top investment watches 2026 compared
| Watch | Reference | Retail price | Market value 2026 | 10-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Daytona Steel | 126500LN | 15,300 € | ~26,000 € | +200 % since 2014, -35 % since 2022 |
| Rolex Submariner Date | 126610LN | 10,700 € | ~13,500 € | +150 %, -25 % |
| Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi | 126710BLRO | 11,700 € | ~17,500 € | +170 %, -30 % |
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A | 5711/1A | ~36,000 € (retail discontinued) | ~95,000 € | +450 %, -45 % |
| Patek Aquanaut 5167A | 5167A | 26,000 € | ~43,000 € | +200 %, -25 % |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak | 15500ST | 33,000 € | ~50,000 € | +220 %, -30 % |
| AP Royal Oak Offshore | 26420SO | 34,000 € | ~38,000 € | +150 %, stable |
| Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch | 310.30.42.50.01.001 | 7,300 € | ~7,500 € | stable, no hype premium |
| Vacheron Constantin Overseas | 4500V | 24,000 € | ~29,000 € | +90 %, +5 % (counter-cyclical) |
The Rolex Daytona remains the classic with the highest liquidity. The Patek Nautilus 5711 was the king — today it is easier to get hold of, but with a -45 % correction. The Vacheron Overseas outperformed in 2024-2026 because it was undervalued relative to the Royal Oak.
Pros & cons of a watch position
- Value stability in top brands (Rolex/Patek/AP)
- Low storage costs (bank safe deposit box 50–100 €/year)
- In Germany, after 12 months, tax-free (§ 23 EStG)
- Good liquidity (Chrono24, Watchfinder, auctions)
- A usable asset: wearable, representative
- Hype volatility: possible drawdowns of 40–50 % in 18 months
- Authenticity risk: 5–15 % counterfeits on the secondary market (especially the Daytona)
- Market fees of 5–10 % when selling (Chrono24, auction)
- Servicing costs every 5–7 years of 800–2,500 €
- No cash flow — pure value speculation
Where to buy with guarantees?
- Authorized dealer (retail price, long waiting lists): direct purchase at a Rolex/Patek/AP boutique. Advantage: the lowest price. Disadvantage: waiting lists of 2–10 years, a buying history is required (several previous purchases).
- Chrono24: the largest secondary market. Buyer protection, verified sellers. The standard for models without a waiting list. More than 1,000 sellers in the DACH region.
- Auctions (Phillips, Christie’s, Sotheby’s): for rare models. Buyer’s premium of 10–25 %, in exchange for maximum authenticity. Vintage watches (1950–1990) belong in this channel.
- Specialized dealers (Bachmann & Scher, Wempe, Bucherer): warranty + authentication. 5–15 % more expensive than Chrono24, but safe.
- Private sale: the cheapest route, but the riskiest. Only with in-person handover and inspection by an independent watchmaker.
Frequently asked questions
Which watch is the best investment option in 2026?
Conservative: Rolex Submariner Date (126610LN) — stable, liquid, barely any drawdown risk. Return-oriented: Patek Aquanaut 5167A or AP Royal Oak 15500ST — both currently below hype level, with recovery potential. Speculative: limited editions (e.g. Rolex Daytona “Le Mans” 126529LN, Patek Cubitus). To avoid: models with high hype in 2022 (Daytona Rainbow, Nautilus Tiffany).
How is the sale of watches taxed in Germany?
Private individual + 12 months of holding = tax-free (§ 23 EStG, speculation period). Before 12 months: personal tax rate on the gain. Important: do not become a “dealer” — anyone selling more than 5 watches per year may be classified as a dealer; then VAT + income tax apply.
Is a watch under 5,000 € worth it?
To a limited extent. Tudor Black Bay, Omega Seamaster Aqua Terra and Grand Seiko are solid stores of value, but barely generate returns. Nominal returns below 1–2 % per year. Anyone seeking investment returns should start at a minimum of 8,000–10,000 € (Rolex Submariner, Tudor Pelagos LHD). Below that level, it is more emotional than economic.
How high is the counterfeit risk?
High, especially with the Rolex Daytona, Submariner and Patek Nautilus. Estimates: 10–15 % of all online secondary-market listings are super-fakes. Protection: only buy from certified sellers or via Chrono24 buyer protection. Use the Authenticator service from Watchfinder/Chrono24 (50–150 €). For vintage watches, always get an independent watchmaker’s appraisal.
What does the 2022-2024 decline mean for 2026 buyers?
A good entry point for many models. The Patek Nautilus 5711 has fallen from 250,000 € to 95,000 € — anyone who sold in 2022 caught the peak price; anyone who buys in 2025–2026 pays retail plus a moderate premium. Risk: there is no guarantee that the next hype plateau will arrive.
Is a watch fund (e.g. Watch Investment Trust) worth it?
So far, barely successful. Few providers, fees of 2–3 %, often with a 5-year lock-up. Historical returns below the Subdial-50 index. Recommendation: better to buy directly in physical form, or via platforms such as Wagmi (US, tokenization) or Watchstrap (UK, managed portfolio).
Real return, inflation hedge, check correlation
Watches as a collectible are a bet on brand legacy and generational handover. Before buying: what would the same money have returned in an ETF?
- Real-return calculator — what’s left net after 10 years at 5 % per year?
- Correlation matrix — how independent are watch values from stocks?
- Wine, classic cars, whisky — other real assets compared
- Best savings plan — in case you prefer a liquid alternative