What happens to my stocks in the Iran Crisis?
Iran has been blocking the Strait of Hormuz since late February — but in June the picture flipped: despite US retaliation strikes after an Apache helicopter was shot down, oil briefly fell almost 4% as markets bet on a deal with Tehran. Meanwhile inflation has become the second front. Here's the current state of play — and the steps you can take now.
Key facts
- The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked since late February 2026 — oil has carried a risk premium ever since. Yet on June 10 WTI fell 3.9% to $87.74 and Brent 3% to $91.40: markets are trading deal hopes, not the escalation.
- June 8: Iran shoots down a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz (both pilots recovered unharmed). In the night to June 10 the US responds with calibrated strikes on air defenses and radars — deliberately sparing oil infrastructure.
- Trump promised a deal with Tehran within “two or three days” — but then dampened hopes of a quick agreement himself on June 11. Markets are whipsawing between escalation and peace scenarios.
- The second front is inflation: US CPI hit 4.2% in May (hottest print in three years, Dow −953 points), and on June 11 the ECB hiked rates for the first time since 2023 (deposit rate 2.25%). Rate-cut hopes are off the table.
- Defense stocks (Rheinmetall, RTX, Lockheed Martin) remain well supported by higher defense budgets; airlines and travel names continue to suffer from jet fuel costs and rerouting.
- Historically: geopolitical crises trigger short-term selloffs (5–10%) that are usually recovered within 3–6 months.
Potential winners
Stocks that historically benefit during geopolitical crises — energy, defense, precious metals:
Stocks under pressure
Stocks under pressure — airlines, tourism, consumer:
What you should do now
Don't panic sell
Geopolitical crises are routine — the market almost always overreacts in the first 48–72 hours. Selling in panic locks in the loss and misses the recovery. Only sell if your investment thesis is genuinely broken (e.g. an airline that permanently loses its margins).
Check your cash ratio, don't raise it via fire-sales
If you don't already hold 5–15% cash, build it up — but not via emergency sales. Use regular savings rates or fresh dividends instead. Cash gives you options for the next correction.
Sector rebalance in tranches
If you're underweight energy/defense, buy in 3–4 tranches over 4–6 weeks. Never go all-in during a crisis — the timing is almost always wrong. Savings plans (e.g. €1/month Trade Republic) are perfect for this.
Defensive ETFs as anchor
If single stocks feel too risky: MSCI World Energy ETF, MSCI World Defense ETF or Gold ETF (Xetra-Gold) as a 5–15% satellite. Free savings plans at Trade Republic, Scalable and Flatex.
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FAQ — Common questions in this crisis
Should I buy oil stocks now?
If you're underweight energy (<5% in portfolio): yes, but in tranches. ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell offer 3–5% dividend yields and benefit from higher oil prices. Caveat: if the crisis de-escalates fast, Brent falls back just as quickly. A savings plan is safer than a lump sum.
Which stocks should I sell RIGHT NOW?
None across the board. Only sell if your investment thesis is broken. Example: if you bought Lufthansa for an expected tourism boom and now Iran/Iraq routes are permanently rerouted, it's worth re-checking. Pure crisis reactions are almost always a mistake.
Are defense stocks like Rheinmetall still worth it?
Rheinmetall is up 800% since 2022 — a lot of the crisis is priced in. That said: as long as EU defense budgets keep rising (NATO target moving from 2% to 3% of GDP), the trend stays intact. Realistically only as a 2–5% satellite now, not a core position.
What about the gold price?
Gold is the classic safe-haven — typical +5–15% moves during geopolitical crises. Xetra-Gold (DE000A0S9GB0) is physically backed and tax-free after a 1-year holding period in Austria. Not a crisis cure-all, but a 5–10% satellite makes sense.
Is my MSCI World ETF at risk now?
No — the MSCI World is globally diversified across ~1,500 stocks, ~70% US. Geopolitical crises push it down 3–8% short-term, but within 6–12 months that's almost always recovered. Just keep your savings plan running.