What happens to my stocks in the Iran Crisis?
Tensions between Israel, the US and Iran have sent oil and defense stocks soaring while travel and airline names fall. Here's what investors actually need to know — and three concrete steps you can take today.
Key facts
- Brent oil is up ~14% since the crisis began — the classic risk-premium effect during Middle East escalations.
- Defense stocks (Lockheed Martin, RTX, Rheinmetall) benefit from increased EU and US defense budgets.
- Airlines and travel names (Lufthansa, IAG, Booking) suffer from higher jet fuel costs and rerouted Iran/Iraq corridors.
- Gold ETFs are seeing record inflows — the textbook safe-haven move.
- Historically: geopolitical crises trigger short-term selloffs (5–10%) that are usually recovered within 3–6 months.
Potential winners
Stocks that historically benefit during geopolitical crises — energy, defense, precious metals:
Stocks under pressure
Stocks under pressure — airlines, tourism, consumer:
What you should do now
Don't panic sell
Geopolitical crises are routine — the market almost always overreacts in the first 48–72 hours. Selling in panic locks in the loss and misses the recovery. Only sell if your investment thesis is genuinely broken (e.g. an airline that permanently loses its margins).
Check your cash ratio, don't raise it via fire-sales
If you don't already hold 5–15% cash, build it up — but not via emergency sales. Use regular savings rates or fresh dividends instead. Cash gives you options for the next correction.
Sector rebalance in tranches
If you're underweight energy/defense, buy in 3–4 tranches over 4–6 weeks. Never go all-in during a crisis — the timing is almost always wrong. Savings plans (e.g. €1/month Trade Republic) are perfect for this.
Defensive ETFs as anchor
If single stocks feel too risky: MSCI World Energy ETF, MSCI World Defense ETF or Gold ETF (Xetra-Gold) as a 5–15% satellite. Free savings plans at Trade Republic, Scalable and Flatex.
Recommended brokers — low-fee, no order commissions
If you want to act on these recommendations, you need a broker with low fees, fractional shares and free savings plans. These three are our top picks:
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FAQ — Common questions in this crisis
Should I buy oil stocks now?
If you're underweight energy (<5% in portfolio): yes, but in tranches. ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell offer 3–5% dividend yields and benefit from higher oil prices. Caveat: if the crisis de-escalates fast, Brent falls back just as quickly. A savings plan is safer than a lump sum.
Which stocks should I sell RIGHT NOW?
None across the board. Only sell if your investment thesis is broken. Example: if you bought Lufthansa for an expected tourism boom and now Iran/Iraq routes are permanently rerouted, it's worth re-checking. Pure crisis reactions are almost always a mistake.
Are defense stocks like Rheinmetall still worth it?
Rheinmetall is up 800% since 2022 — a lot of the crisis is priced in. That said: as long as EU defense budgets keep rising (NATO target moving from 2% to 3% of GDP), the trend stays intact. Realistically only as a 2–5% satellite now, not a core position.
What about the gold price?
Gold is the classic safe-haven — typical +5–15% moves during geopolitical crises. Xetra-Gold (DE000A0S9GB0) is physically backed and tax-free after a 1-year holding period in Austria. Not a crisis cure-all, but a 5–10% satellite makes sense.
Is my MSCI World ETF at risk now?
No — the MSCI World is globally diversified across ~1,500 stocks, ~70% US. Geopolitical crises push it down 3–8% short-term, but within 6–12 months that's almost always recovered. Just keep your savings plan running.