Introduction: The AI Investment Dynamic in 2026 Three years after the launch of ChatGPT, the AI sector finds itself in an interesting phase. Nvidia has multiplied its market value from just under 500 billion to over 4 trillion US dollars. The question: Is a second wave coming — and who benefits? The AI Value Chain Layer 1: Semiconductors and Hardware. Nvidia dominates with H100 and B200 chips. …
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Three years after the launch of ChatGPT, the AI sector finds itself in an interesting phase. Nvidia has multiplied its market value from just under 500 billion to over 4 trillion US dollars. The question: Is a second wave coming — and who benefits?
The AI Value Chain
Layer 1: Semiconductors and Hardware. Nvidia dominates with H100 and B200 chips. AMD (MI300), Broadcom (custom ASICs), and Marvell round out the field. Nvidia trades at over 60x forward P/E.
Layer 2: Cloud Infrastructure. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Oracle form the hyperscaler layer. Marvell announced a possible deal with Alphabet — signaling diversification away from pure Nvidia dependency.
Layer 3: Foundation Models. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind. OpenAI is not publicly traded; Microsoft benefits indirectly. Anthropic valued at over 60 billion US dollars.
Layer 4: Applications. Palantir, Salesforce, Adobe — and "AI-native" companies like C3.ai with often speculative valuations.
Layer 5: Energy and Cooling. Constellation Energy, NextEra, Vertiv, Eaton — structural beneficiaries without being AI companies themselves.
Who Benefits from the Next Wave?
Three drivers: First, monetization begins at the application level — Microsoft Copilot and Salesforce Einstein generate significant revenue. Second, efficiency matters more — new architectures reduce cost per query dramatically. Third, geographic diversification: China with Alibaba Cloud, Baidu, DeepSeek.
Valuation Analysis
Microsoft at ~32x forward P/E, Google at 23x, Meta at 26x — elevated but not bubble-like. Nvidia at 60+ requires years of continued growth. Palantir at 70x sales and C3.ai at 25x sales are speculative.
Three Investment Theses for 2026
Thesis 1 (defensive): ETFs like Global X BOTZ or iShares IRBO for broad diversification.
Thesis 2 (balanced): Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta as core — supplemented by Nvidia/AMD and Constellation Energy/Vertiv.
Thesis 3 (aggressive): Marvell Technology, Vertiv, Applied Digital for risk-tolerant investors seeking higher upside.
The Risks
Bubble risk: corrections of 40-60% in individual stocks possible at any time. Competitive risk: open-source models (Llama, Mistral) growing stronger. Regulatory risk: EU AI Act, China regulations, US federal legislation.
Conclusion
The days of simple "buy Nvidia" strategies are over. Investors must be more selective and go deeper into the value chain. In Kostolany's spirit: the bull market dies in euphoria. As long as there is still discussion about which stocks really benefit, we are not at the peak.
