Profil et philosophie d'investissement

Bridgewater Associates, le fonds de Ray Dalio, reste concentré sur le « Grand Cycle » des bouleversements économiques et géopolitiques mondiaux. Au premier trimestre 2026, le fonds a initié une nouvelle position importante dans Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) et Nucor, traduisant un double pari sur l'infrastructure de l'IA et la force industrielle domestique. Dalio continue de mettre en garde contre les cycles historiques alimentés par la dette et les conflits internes, maintenant une approche diversifiée « All Weather » face à la polarisation mondiale.

Track Record

Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates in his New York apartment in 1975. By 2022 it was the largest hedge fund globally with peak AUM around $150 billion. The flagship Pure Alpha strategy delivered roughly 11.5% net annualized from 1991 through 2022. All Weather, the risk-parity strategy launched in 1996, compounded near 7-8% with lower volatility than 60/40 portfolios. Bridgewater navigated the dot-com bust, 2008 (Pure Alpha +9.5% while markets collapsed), and the European sovereign crisis. Dalio stepped down as Co-CIO in October 2022 after a multi-year succession process and now operates as a mentor and macro commentator. AUM in 2026 sits closer to $112 billion.

Trades emblématiques

Stratégie actuelle (2026)

Dalio's public 2026 framing centers on the 'Big Cycle' — debt, internal political conflict, external power shifts, and technology disruption. He warns the US is in late-stage debt-cycle territory with debt-to-GDP near 130%, deficits at 6-7% of GDP, and forced monetization risk. His personal portfolio guidance: 15% gold, diversified across geographies and asset classes, with exposure to China despite the US-China tension thesis. Bridgewater (post-Dalio leadership under Karen Karniol-Tambour and Bob Prince) has rotated All Weather toward more inflation hedges, commodities, and emerging Asia. AI is a recurring theme — Bridgewater launched AI-driven systematic strategies and Dalio publicly calls AI both productivity boom and labor disruption.

Dalio is the best macro communicator of his generation and the framework — debt cycles, currency cycles, world order — is genuinely useful. The catch: he has been bearish on the dollar and US equities for years while the S&P 500 has roughly doubled. BMI's view: All Weather is a sensible foundation portfolio for retail investors who want sleep-at-night diversification, but it has lagged 60/40 over the past decade. The China-exposure call looks contrarian-correct if you believe valuations matter more than narratives. We'd take Dalio's frameworks seriously and his short-term predictions with salt — he's right about the destination, not the timing.

Dernière déclaration SEC Form 13F. Valeur totale du portefeuille: 19,5 Md €. Positions: 993 positions.