Upstart Holdings

Valuation Analysis

About the Company

Upstart Holdings en bref

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is currently trading at 23,79 € with a market capitalization of 2,3 Md €. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 66.93x, with a forward P/E of 8.15x. The 52-week range spans from 20,77 € to 73,96 €; the current price is 67.8% below the yearly high. Year-over-year revenue growth stands at +44.6%. The net profit margin stands at 4.21%.

💰 Dividende

Upstart Holdings currently does not pay a dividend. The company typically reinvests its earnings into growth initiatives and product development.

📊 Avis des analystes

15 analystes évaluent Upstart Holdings (UPST) au consensus : Acheter. L'objectif de cours moyen est de 34,51 €, soit un potentiel de +45.04% par rapport au cours actuel. La fourchette des objectifs de cours des analystes va de 17,34 € à 52,89 €.

Upstart Holdings : la thèse d'investissement en détail

Upstart Holdings (UPST) operates in the Financial Services — specifically Credit Services — and is headquartered in United States. Below is a structured read of the investment case built directly from the latest fundamentals, valuation multiples, analyst positioning and smart-money flows. Each section translates raw numbers into the investment logic they imply, so you can decide whether the risk/reward fits your portfolio.

Le scénario haussier

Top-line momentum is unusually strong with revenue expanding 44.6% year-over-year, a pace that puts the company well above the market average and signals genuine demand traction rather than mere cyclical tailwind. With a gross margin near 82.71%, the company sits in the top tier of its industry — these are the kinds of structural margins that protect earnings during downturns. Wall Street consensus sits at Buy with an average price target implying roughly 45.04% upside from current levels — analyst sentiment is firmly constructive.

Le scénario baissier

With a net margin of just 4.21%, the business has little room to absorb cost shocks or pricing pressure — a single bad quarter can swing the company to a loss. The debt-to-equity ratio of 269.84% is elevated, meaning the company relies heavily on creditors — refinancing terms will become more important than operational performance in the next economic downturn. With a beta near 2.27, the share price moves sharply more than the broader market — drawdowns in market corrections can be unusually severe and require strong nerves.

Valorisation en contexte

The EV/EBITDA multiple of 41.75x reflects rich expectations — historically, multiples at this level have proven hard to maintain for more than a few quarters.

À surveiller

• The forward P/E of 8.15x is meaningfully below the trailing 66.93x — analysts expect earnings to step up; the next earnings release is the test.
• The price sits in the lower quartile of the 52-week range — value hunters often start scaling in around this zone if fundamentals hold.
• The analyst consensus price target implies 45.04% upside — if the next two quarters confirm the underlying thesis, target hikes typically follow.

Thèse d'investissement : forces et faiblesses

Aperçu technique

Price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with 50d below 200d — a bearish picture (death-cross alignment).

Profil de risque

The data points to above-average price swings, elevated short interest (31.36%), higher leverage relative to equity.

Trading Data

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